THE Northern Territory's poor economy continues to play a part in its subdued property market with 15.6 percent price reductions for houses in the past five years and a massive 29.4 percent for units.

According to the latest RiskWise Property Research Risks & Opportunities Report, much of the negative capital growth in recent years is due to population decreases following the end of the mining boom and lack of employment, leading to high interstate emigration.

RiskWise CEO Doron Peleg said the territory was the only state in Australia that experienced population loss in 2017-18.

“While dwelling supply in relation to population growth is low and dwellings are very affordable, the low demand for housing makes the Northern Territory a risky area especially given the low level of private investment that is significantly below the growth levels during the mining boom,” Mr Peleg said.

“According to CoreLogic, Darwin house prices peaked in 2014 and fell 15.6 percent over the past five years. However, improved housing affordability slightly reduces the risk associated with houses from medium-high to medium.”

He said it was likely houses in the Northern Territory would deliver poor or negative capital growth in the short to medium term.

However, as more than 67 percent of houses in the territory were owner-occupied and held for a long period of time, he said they carried a lower level of risk than units.

“Units carry a very high level of risk to deliver negative capital growth, due to the combination of oversupply, lending restrictions and low demand,” Mr Peleg said.

“The current supply of units, while not considered high in relation to population growth, still exceeds the low demand for them.

“This is particularly the case in areas with a high concentration of off-the-plan units, such as Darwin with 2034 units in the pipeline (10.2 percent increase to the current stock). They delivered -33.7 percent capital growth over the last five years.”

www.riskwiseproperty.com.au

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WITH economic activity in Western Australia well below its 10-year average and effective unemployment significantly above the 10-year benchmark, the property market, particularly units, continues to experience weakness.

However, according to the latest RiskWise Property Research Risks & Opportunities Report, buyer confidence is on the increase in the state, particularly Perth with housing finance increasing 15.1 percent since February 2019 after a reduction of 2.4 percent relative to August 2018.

RiskWise CEO Doron Peleg said with low economic activity and high unemployment, Western Australia’s annual population growth of 1 percent was the third lowest in the country.

“As a result, the housing market, particularly units, has experienced continued weakness in recent years. According to CoreLogic, house and unit prices in Perth have declined by 8.6 percent and 9 percent in the past year, respectively,” Mr Peleg said.

“Western Australia is still in a long transition process from a mining-oriented economy and while unemployment has slightly improved from 6.1 percent in April to 5.7 percent in October, it is still projected to deliver low economic growth, a soft job market and low population growth.

“Mortgage arrears are at an alarming level with the delinquency rate sitting at 2.75 percent. While this has improved from 3.05 percent as reported in August, this number has grown over the course of several years and is now well above the Australian average. The relatively high unemployment rate also increases the risk of credit defaults.

“Negative equity also remains a major risk especially for lenders who have a concentration of loans in this market. These risks are compounded by this high rate of arrears. High-risk borrowers, combined with properties that suffer from low demand, require special attention in relation to credit provisioning.”

Mr Peleg said while Perth was "very affordable" there were a small number of suburbs where houses delivered reasonable capital growth in recent years. However, these were exceptions only.

He said despite lower interest rates (with another expected in the new year) and some loosening of credit restrictions, houses still carried a medium level of risk due to Western Australia’s economic conditions.

House prices have declined by 9 percent in the past year and in Perth, house and unit prices declined by 8.6 percent and 9 percent, respectively.

Low-performing areas for houses in the past year include Perth-North East (with -8.8 percent capital growth), Perth–Inner (-8.4 percent) and Perth-South West (-7.3 percent).

“However, the risks associated with units is even higher as they are expected to deliver poor or negative capital growth due to the combination of oversupply, lending restrictions and low demand as they are generally not attractive to families or owner-occupiers,” Mr Pelif said.

“Also, units in some suburbs are subject to voluntary lending restrictions by the major lenders, such as lower loan-to-value ratio (that is,  higher deposit). In addition, the state government tax on overseas investors further decreases the demand for new units as investment properties.”

Perth–South East has the highest rate of unit oversupply in the state with 1900 units in the pipeline (a 6.7 per cent increase to the current stock).

“The issues with construction defects in NSW and Victoria and the publicity they have received in the media mean this situation is unlikely to materially improve in the short term.

“While there have been no major construction defects reported in relation to high-rise buildings in Perth, the events in Sydney and Melbourne increase the risk of reputational damage and, consequently, lower demand for both existing and off-the-plan high-rise units.”

Visit www.riskwiseproperty.com.au

THE 28th Asia Pacific Parliamentary Forum (APFF) will be held at Parliament House, Canberra, from January 13-15. 

The APPF will bring together more than 350 delegates from 30 countries to discuss subjects such as security, economics and trade, and regional cooperation. 

Access to the APPF is limited to parliamentary pass holders, such as accredited members of the press gallery. 

Pass holders may attend and film the opening ceremony on Monday January 13 from 11am in the Great Hall, Parliament House.

Visit appf28.org.

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THE Financial Services Council (FSC) has launched a simple new service for Australians and their loved ones to use if life insurance policy details have been lost or destroyed as a result of the devastating bushfires.

FSC CEO Sally Loane said the life insurance industry was working together to ensure every affected Australian can check their records and be reunited with their life insurance policy details.

“There are a few scenarios where we can help, for example, if you need to make a claim for a relative in the case of a fatality; if you have been injured and can’t work; or if you have simply lost your policy documents and details,” Ms Loane said.

“It is important to note if you hold life insurance through your superannuation, you should contact your super fund directly. Life insurers don’t hold the details of individuals covered by group policies.”

For FSC to help, simply copy the text below into an email, including the consent wording, fill in the blanks and email it to us at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.:

Name of the person enquiring about the policy (your full name):
Your contact phone number:
Your email address:
Full name/s of the person/s insured under the policy:
The date/s of birth of the person/s insured:
The last known address/es:
Your relationship to the insured person/s:

I consent to the Financial Services Council forwarding the above information to their life insurance members to help find any life insurance policies insuring the people named above.

I understand that the life insurer may have to confirm that I am entitled to the information sought, including whether I am the person insured, a beneficiary, executor, trustee or guardian of the insured person.

www.fsc.org.au

About the Financial Services Council

The Financial Services Council (FSC) has over 100 members representing Australia's retail and wholesale funds management businesses, superannuation funds, life insurers, financial advisory networks and licensed trustee companies. The industry is responsible for investing almost $3 trillion on behalf of more than 14.8 million Australians. The pool of funds under management is larger than Australia’s GDP and the capitalisation of the Australian Securities Exchange and is the fourth largest pool of managed funds in the world. The FSC promotes best practice for the financial services industry by setting mandatory Standards for its members and providing Guidance Notes to assist in operational efficiency.

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