SEATTLE -  In its first forecasts for COVID-19 deaths outside North America and Europe, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington is projecting nearly 90,000 deaths in Brazil through early August, as well as more than 5,000 deaths each in Ecuador, Mexico, and Peru.

In addition, Egypt's death toll may exceed 2,000 and the Philippines' may exceed 1,500. The new projections also include updated forecasts for European nations, as well as 147,000 projected US deaths, an increase of 10,000 since the previous forecast on May 10.

"IHME's new forecasts for a growing number of countries around the world demonstrate the wide range of responses policymakers and health officials have had to the pandemic," said IHME director Dr Christopher Murray. "We aim to inform their decisions on how best to manage and mobilize for COVID-19."

IHME's current forecasting lasts through August 4 and, as Murray noted, the Institute's projections will change as new data are acquired and analyzed. Fluctuations are to be expected.

In the US, several states' projections increased since IHME's previous forecast on May 10. Those include New York (increase of 2,448), North Carolina (increase of 3,222), Massachusetts (increase of 2,084), Pennsylvania (increase of 1,677) and Maryland (increase of 1,192).

Reasons for the some of the increases, Murray said, include increased mobility and the easing of distancing policies.

Other key findings from today's update include:

• Brazil: 88,305 deaths projected through August 4, with a range of 30,302 to 193,786
• Mexico: 6,859 deaths projected through August 4, with a range of 3,578 to 16,795
• Ecuador: 5,215 deaths projected through August 4, with a range of 4,844 to 6,052
• Peru: 6,428 deaths projected through August 4, with a range of 2,731 to 21,724
• Egypt: 2,047 deaths projected through August 4, with a range of 805 to 6,059
• Philippines: 1,735 deaths projected through August 4, with a range of 1,094 to 3,972
• South Korea: 346 deaths projected through August 4, with a range of 262 to 755
• Sweden: 5,760 deaths projected through August 4, with a range of 4,426 to 9,089
• Israel: 272 deaths projected through August 4, with a range of 266 to 279
• UK: 43,479 deaths projected through August 4, with a range of 40,110 to 50,128
• US: 147,040 deaths projected through August 4, with a range of 113,182 to 226,971

Today's findings follow requests from several nations' health leaders for estimates of deaths and other COVID-19-related concerns, such as hospital resources needed to help address the pandemic. 

"The IHME team has worked closely with our collaborator network, now totaling more than 5,000 people in over 150 countries," Dr Murray said. "Many of those in the network have been essential in identifying data sources and helping verify these new forecasts."

Starting today, the Institute's forecasts for all countries and regions included are based on a new hybrid model. The model IHME released on March 26 to estimate hospital resource demand is now combined with a disease transmission model.

The new model captures the impact of changes in social distancing mandates, changes in mobility, and the impact of testing and contact tracing. It enables predicting a resurgence if and when more social distancing mandates are relaxed.

"The hybrid model allows us to better track changes to social distancing mandates and other drivers such as testing, contact tracing, and temperature," Dr Murray said.

"As with all our forecasts, these will be routinely updated and new data added as it is available. As social distancing mandates are lifted, we will be better able to understand whether behaviors, such as mask-wearing, can counteract increased mobility and keep cases down to prevent a prolonged pandemic."  

The new death projections are available at https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections.    

IHME thanked  the Microsoft AI for Health program for supporting our hosting of COVID-19 data visualizations in the Azure cloud. 

About the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation 
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research organization at the University of Washington School of Medicine that provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world's most important health problems and evaluates the strategies used to address them. IHME is committed to transparency and makes this information widely available so that policymakers have the evidence they need to make informed decisions on allocating resources to improve population health.

ends

THE Environmental Defenders Office (EDO) is in the Federal Court tomorrow, May 13, acting for Veronica 'Dolly' Talbott, as a member of the Gomeroi Traditional Custodians.
 
According to the EDO, this is an important Constitutional test case.

This case challenges the lawfulness of a decision by the federal Environment Minister not to grant protection to several 'Significant Areas of Aboriginal cultural heritage' within the footprint of the approved Shenhua Watermark open cut coal mine on highly productive agricultural land on the Liverpool Plains, northwest NSW.
 
The Minister made this decision despite acknowledging the “immeasurable” cultural value of the sacred places and objects under direct threat of destruction or desecration, the EDO is claiming.
 
The Minister acknowledged that the development of the mine would destroy or desecrate the Significant Areas but concluded that the mine’s potential economic and social benefits outweighed their heritage value.
 
Dolly Talbott expressed the deep hurt felt by the Elders and the community at this decision and that there was no choice other than to fight it.
 
“When we heard of the Minister’s decision, there was a high level of confusion and disbelief," she said. "Does our culture, our spiritual and sacred places of Aboriginal heritage, mean nothing in this country? We believe the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Heritage Protection Act 1984 was put in place to protect our heritage, but in this case it hasn’t at all.

“If this mega-mine proceeds, our interlinked sacred places will be completely destroyed and obliterated from the landscape. We will no longer be able to read our Country, share our sacred places with our children and grandchildren. Our ancestors’ footprints, their legacy to us, will be lost - lost forever.
 
“We are the only ones who have no monetary interest in this," said Dolly, “We just want to protect our heritage, our sacred places. As the oldest living culture on the planet, surely this should be of utmost importance to Australia?”
 
David Morris, CEO, Environmental Defenders Office said, “Tomorrow, EDO is privileged to represent Dolly Talbott in a hearing challenging the Minister’s decision to protect coal mining over a site of significant importance to First Nations peoples.
 
"Our client will argue that the Minister made an error of law, incorrectly applying the legislation which is designed to protect Aboriginal Cultural Heritage. This will be an important test case, interrogating the limits of the Constitutional basis for the Act and the matters which the Minister was permitted to consider in deciding to refuse protection for the areas.”
 
The Gomeroi Traditional Custodians first lodged an application for protection of the Significant Areas in April 2015 under s.10 of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Heritage Protection Act 1984 (Cth) (ATSIHP Act). The purpose of the ATSIHP Act is:
 
“the preservation and protection from injury or desecration of areas and objects in Australia and in Australian waters, being areas and objects that are of particular significance to Aboriginals in accordance with Aboriginal tradition.”
 
The Minister acknowledged that the development of the mine would destroy or desecrate the Significant Areas but concluded that the mine’s potential economic and social benefits outweighed their heritage value.
 
The Significant Areas, which are within the footprint of the mine, are an important cultural junction and part of a broader Aboriginal cultural landscape. They include sacred places and significant ceremonial corridors. The interlinked sites also include, but are not limited to, large grinding groove sites, scarred trees and artefactual objects of high order significance irreplaceable to the Gomeroi Traditional Custodians. If the mega-mine of three open-cut pits went ahead, not only would the existing landscape be destroyed but it would be replaced by a new, mine-created landscape.
 
https://www.edo.org.au/shenhua-watermark-coal-mine/

ends

NEW SOUTH WALES cemented its reputation as the capital of regtech in the Asia-Pacific by sponsoring the RegTech Virtual Pitchfest.

The Pitchfest provides six early stage regtech companies a platform to promote their innovative ideas in front of investors and competition judges, with one winner each named for NSW and Victoria.

Minister for Jobs, Investment, Tourism and Western Sydney, Stuart Ayres said startups on display at this year’s Pitchfest demonstrated the depth of local talent on offer.

“New South Wales leads the region in regtech and this Government believes there is enormous potential for jobs generation and investment in this space,” Mr Ayres said.

“Regtech will increase capacity and productivity across the broader economy. Leading companies such as Sydney-based Checkbox.ai are building innovative solutions that remove roadblocks and allow enterprises to achieve greater efficiencies.”

InfoSecAssure was named NSW winner, while Frankie Financial took out the Victorian title. 

Regtech is the use of emerging technology to provide advanced solutions that solve increasingly complex regulatory and compliance demands.

Sydney is home to 64 percent of Australia’s regtech companies with global spending in the sector forecast to climb from $25 billion in 2019 to $127 billion by 2024.

The RegTech Virtual Pitchfest is organised by The RegTech Association (RTA) to recognise and promote the best regtech early stage startups in Australia.

Contestants have four minutes to pitch, followed by a two-minute Q&A from the judges, with winners announced at the end of the session.

The NSW Government has a partnership with The RegTech Association to support industry initiatives, including the Pitchfest.

The Minister said NSW was committed to supporting tech entrepreneurs in a number of ways, including through the development of landmark projects such as the Sydney Startup Hub and the Sydney Innovation and Technology Precinct.

The NSW Government also supports tech innovation through a range of other measures, including the Minimum Viable Product grant of up to $25,000 for startups.

ends

MASTER BUILDERS Australia has commended the Federal Government’s move to support business through the economic shock of COVID-19 by amending its procurement and contracting arrangements. 

Denita Wawn, CEO of Master Builder Australia said, “The measures to give relief on contract terms and speed up payments  announced by the Minister for Finance today is an extremely positive initiative that will bolster confidence among building and construction businesses working on federally funded construction projects.

“It’s very pleasing to see the government making an effort to be a ‘model procurer’ and setting a good example in providing relief to businesses whose provision of goods and services is affected by COVID-19,” Ms Wawn said. 

“Master Builders has been calling for this measure since the onset of the economic emergency brought on by the coronavirus and it’s really good to see the government has been listening. We must also give credit to the Defence Department which moved early on to provide this kind of support to its suppliers. 

“Now we just need more private sector clients to follow the government’s example and also do the right thing and not take commercial advantage during the COVID-19 crisis,” Ms Wawn said.

www.masterbuilders.com.au

ends