January figures show a softer than expected retail trade

THE Australian Retailers Association (ARA) said January 2019 trade figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) indicates a conservative post-Christmas trade, with a 2.66 percent total growth year-on-year.

Russell Zimmerman, executive director of the ARA, said the ARA and Roy Morgan post-Christmas sales predictions are softer than the actual post-Christmas trade results released today by the ABS.

“As we forecasted a 3.1 percent increase in post-Christmas trade and predicted Australians would spend almost $18.3 billion from December 26, 2018 to January 15, 2019, today’s figures are slightly less than what we anticipated,” Mr Zimmerman said.

“While December sales started off strong, it seems to have slightly lowered for January. Despite today’s amicable figures, the ARA will continue to partner with Roy Morgan annually to deliver the only professionally researched retail industry predictions.”

In light of this, categories showing considerable growth in January included; Food retailing (4.12%), Cafés and restaurants (3.15%),which was strongly supported by Supermarkets (4.52%).

“While consumer sentiment has been at the forefront of media discussion recently, it is pleasing to see that the Cafés, restaurants and takeaway category has recorded strong consecutive growth over the last three months,” Mr Zimmerman said.

“This could be indicative of consumers feeling more confident to spend on small luxuries and we hope this trend will continue to increase and spill into other retail categories across the retail sector.”

While Clothing, Footwear and Personal Accessories received respectable growth in January,  unfortunately, Department stores (-1.38%) noted a decrease in year-on-year sales. However, Mr Zimmerman said he is optimistic that these figures will improve over the coming months.

“Although Department stores saw a decrease in year-on-year growth for January, it’s important to note that Myer had a return on profitability for the first 6 months of this year ” Mr Zimmerman said.

Across the nation, New South Wales (0.65%) and Tasmania (0.42%) recorded the strongest year-on-year growth of all the states. While South Australia (0.12%) and Victoria (0.11%) showed steady year-on-year growth, Western Australia (-0.34%), Australian Capital Territory (-0.40%), Queensland (0.46%) and Northern Territory (-1.21%) received negative figures in January.

“Tasmania, Victoria and Australian Capital Territory indicated a strong year-on-year growth in January and it is promising to see Western Australia continuing to record positive numbers after a period of sustained weakness,” Mr Zimmerman said.

“However, it is concerning to see that the Northern Territory have yet again showed negative figures for the fifth consecutive month in row, after recording such strong results last year from March to August.” 

 

Monthly Retail Growth (December 2018 – January 2019 seasonally adjusted) 

Other retailing (0.68%), Cafés, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.26%), Household goods retailing (-0.05%), Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-0.30%), Food retailing (0.31%), and Department stores (-2.12 %).

New South Wales (0.65%), Tasmania (0.42%) South Australia (0.12%), Victoria (0.11%), Western Australia (-0.34%), Australian Capital Territory (-0.40%), Queensland (-0.46%), and Northern Territory (-1.21%).

Total sales (0.11%).

Year-on-Year Retail Growth (January 2018 – January 2019 seasonally adjusted)

Food retailing (4.12%), Other retailing (3.50%), Cafés, restaurants and takeaway food services (3.15%), Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (2.27%), Household goods retailing (-0.66%) and Department stores (-1.38%).

Tasmania (4.68%), Victoria (4.23%), Australian Capital Territory (3.77%), New South Wales (2.67%), Queensland (2.10%), South Australia (1.52%), Western Australia (0.57%) and Northern Territory (-2.73%).

Total sales (2.66%). 

About the Australian Retailers Association:
Founded in 1903, the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) is Australia’s largest retail association, representing the country’s $320 billion-dollar sector, which employs almost 1.3 million people. As Australia’s leading retail peak industry body, the ARA is a strong pro-active advocate for Australian retail and works to ensure retail success by informing, protecting, advocating, educating and saving money for its 7,800 independent and national retail members throughout Australia. For more information, visit www.retail.org.au or call 1300 368 041.

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