ARA and Roy Morgan Research release pre-Christmas predictions

THE Australian Retailers Association (ARA) and Roy Morgan’s annual pre-Christmas predictions indicate Australian shoppers will spend over $51 billion across retail stores in Australia during the Christmas trading period from November 9 to December 24, 2018.

Russell Zimmerman, executive director of the ARA, said while the Australian retail industry has seen some patchy results in recent times, the ARA and Roy Morgan are forecasting Australian consumers to spend 2.9 percent more this Christmas compared with 2017.

“With consumer spending on the rise as noted in September’s retail trade figures, the ARA and Roy Morgan are confident that this year’s Christmas sales will remain strong during the festive season, with a 3.67 percent total year-on-year growth across the retail sector,” Mr Zimmerman said.

“An estimated $21 billion is expected to be spent on Food this Christmas, which is a 3.7 percent increase from the previous year and coincides with the consistent figures recorded from this category throughout 2018.”

Apparel and Household Goods will also record a significant increase in trade, with the ARA and Roy Morgan predicting $4 billion to be spent on clothing, footwear and personal accessories, a 3.1 percent increase from the previous year, while over $9 billion is expected to be spent on Household Goods, a 2.0 percent increase from 2017.

With Aussies looking to spend quality time with friends and family during the Christmas season, restaurant and café retailers will see strong growth in sales this year, with the Hospitality category expected to increase by a substantial 3.2 percent.

Across the States and Territories, pre-Christmas sales predictions point to bumper growth for Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia during Christmas trade this year, with these regions showing the strongest predicted growth.

“Christmas is a joyous and celebrated event, admired by Australians who embrace the season of giving. With the retail landscape continuing to adapt to changes in the industry, we can rely on this season to bring stability to retailers,” Mr Zimmerman said.

“As the online retail market continues to expand, the ARA are also predicting online gift purchases to increase by 2.7 percent with Australian shoppers expected to purchase many of their gifts online this year.”

“Each year, the ARA and Roy Morgan work together to produce the only professionally researched industry Christmas predictions in Australia, and we believe the figures released today represent a comprehensive preview of retail figures leading into Christmas.”

ARA Roy Morgan Pre-Christmas Sales Predictions 2018
November 9 – December 24, 2018

2018 Pre-Christmas Sales Growth by Category 

State	2017 Pre-Christmas actual results ($mil)	2018 Forecast Pre-Christmas sales ($mil)	Predicted Growth
FOOD	20163	20908	3.7%
HH GOODS	8757	8931	2.0%
APPAREL	3906	4028	3.1%
DEPARTMENT STORES	2935	2943	0.3%
OTHER	7127	7321	2.7%
HOSPITALITY	7117	7348	3.2%
NATIONAL	50005	51479	2.9%

[ARA / ROY MORGAN]

 

2018 Pre-Christmas Sales Growth by State

State	2017 Pre-Christmas actual results ($mil)	2018 Forecast Pre-Christmas sales ($mil)	Predicted Growth
NSW	16132	16629	3.1%
VIC	12843	13512	5.2%
QLD	9907	10071	1.7%
SA	3320	3422	3.1%
WA	5395	5366	-0.5%
TAS	998	1038	4.0%
NT	495	501	1.2%
ACT	914	940	2.9%
NATIONAL	50005	51479	2.9%

[ARA / ROY MORGAN]

www.retail.org.au/christmas-predictions/

About the Australian Retailers Association

Founded in 1903, the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) is Australia’s largest retail association, representing the country’s $310 billion sector, which employs more than 1.2 million people. As Australia’s leading retail peak industry body, the ARA is a strong pro-active advocate for Australian retail and works to ensure retail success by informing, protecting, advocating, educating and saving money for its 7,500 independent and national retail members throughout Australia. For more information, visit www.retail.org.au or call 1300 368 041.

 

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