Aussies to spend $46.7 billion this Christmas - ARA

THE Australian Retailers Association (ARA) and Roy Morgan Research annual Christmas spending figures indicate Australian shoppers will spend $46.7 billion in retail stores over the Christmas trading period from November 15 to December 24, 2015.

ARA executive director, Russell Zimmerman, said Australian consumers are tipped to spend 3.6 percent more on Christmas at Australian retail stores this year than in 2014, a fantastic rate of growth in light of current levels of consumer sentiment and the raising of interest rates by the major banks this month.

“While the ARA would obviously be thrilled to see higher levels of growth, given the current climate and underlying factors, we’re confident that retailers will see a robust Christmas trade that builds on the amount spent across the country last year,” said Mr Zimmerman.

The ARA has partnered with research partner, Roy Morgan Research, to put together the projections, which factor in aspects such as unemployment and consumer sentiment. In 2014, the ARA and Roy Morgan correctly predicted Christmas spending would reach $45 billion, representing growth of 4.3 percent, with actual sales hitting $45.2 billion for the period.

The ARA has provided pre-Christmas spending forecasts for more than 20 years.

“Victorian retailers particularly will be set for a rush in sales over the next six weeks, with forecast growth of 4.6 percent for the state, while Queensland shoppers will also be considerably active in stores to the tune of 4.2 percent growth,” Mr Zimmerman said.

“Category-wise, retailers in the ‘other retailing’ category will be the winners this year, with 5.6 percent growth expected, while apparel stores will also see a 4.7 percent boost.

“The ARA and Roy Morgan have had almost pinpoint accuracy in our forecast for the last few years, and we’re pleased to see that consumers will continue to hit the shops in their droves in 2015.

“While the week before Christmas is traditionally the biggest shopping week of the year, there’s plenty of consumers who like to be prepared and get in early, with a good deal of Aussies starting to tick items off their Christmas lists from mid-November onwards,” he said.

See tables below for a full break down of the ARA and Roy Morgan’s predicted category and state pre-Christmas sales for November 15 to December 24.

ARA ROY MORGAN PRE-CHRISTMAS 2015 SALES PREDICTIONS

November 15 - December 24

2015 Pre-Christmas Sales Growth by State

State	2014 pre-xmas Actual ($mil)		2015 pre-xmas Forecast ($mil)	Predicted growth (%)
NSW	14377	14854		3.3%
Victoria	11174	11688		4.6%
Queensland	9200	9590		4.2%
South Australia	2945	3026		2.7%
Western Australia	5253	5393		2.7%
Tasmania	882	907		2.7%
Northern Territory	489	493		0.8%
Australian Capital Territory	815	824		1.1%
NATIONAL	45137	46775		3.6%

(ARA/ROY MORGAN)

 

2015 Pre-Christmas Sales Growth by Category

Category	2014 pre-xmas Actual ($mil)	2015 pre-xmas Forecast ($mil)	Predicted growth (%)
Food	18545	18987	2.4%
Household goods	7839	8144	3.9%
Apparel	3436	3598	4.7%
Department stores	2901	3018	4.0%
Other	6112	6456	5.6%
Hospitality	6305	6573	4.3%
NATIONAL	45137	46775	3.6%

(ARA/ROY MORGAN)

 

About the Australian Retailers Association:

Founded in 1903, the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) is the retail industry’s peak representative body representing Australia’s $284 billion sector, which employs more than 1.2 million people. The ARA works to ensure retail success by informing, protecting, advocating, educating and saving money for its 5,000 independent and national retail members throughout Australia.

For more information, visit www.retail.org.au or call 1300 368 041.

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