Business News Releases

Australia's population to reach 30 million in 11 to 15 years

Based on current trends, Australia's population is projected to reach 30 million people between 2029 and 2033, according to the latest figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). 


Population projections are based on assumptions of future levels of fertility, life expectancy and migration, which are guided by recent population trends.

Anthony Grubb, Director of Demography at the ABS, said: "The projected time for the nation to grow by 5 million people on current indications will be similar, if not a little shorter, than the 14 years it took to grow from 20 million to 25 million.

"Looking further ahead, based on the medium of our three main projection assumption series, Australia could add a further 10 million to our current 25 million by the year 2043. 

"However under our higher range of fertility, mortality and migration assumptions the population would reach 35 million 5 years earlier in 2038. Conversely, under lower assumptions the population would only reach 35 million a decade later in 2053."

Historical and projected population of Australia

Under all assumptions, the population of New South Wales is projected to remain as the largest state with a population of between approximately 9 and 9.3 million. Victoria is projected to experience the largest and fastest increase in population; possibly reaching between 7 and 8 million by 2027. 

Queensland is projected to continue growing over the projection period, increasing to 6 million people in 2027. Western Australia is projected to increase to 3 million by 2027, while South Australia is projected to have slower growth, increasing to 2 million. 

The population of the Australian Capital Territory is projected to increase to between 479,000 and 510,000 people closing the gap on Tasmania's population which is projected to reach between 545,000 and 573,000 people in 2027. The Northern Territory is projected to increase to between 270,000 and 284,000 people in 2027.

Projected population, States and territories, at 30 June

Series A (a)
Series B (b)
Series C (c)
2027
2066
2027
2066
2027
2066
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000

New South Wales
9 285
14 796
9 152
13 088
9 022
11 754
Victoria
7 908
14 525
7 694
12 030
7 497
10 091
Queensland
5 931
10 469
5 789
8 718
5 676
7 507
South Australia
1 866
2 437
1 853
2 214
1 838
2 040
Western Australia
2 935
4 926
2 941
4 760
2 928
4 493
Tasmania
573
744
559
581
545
453
Northern Territory
270
386
277
439
284
490
Australian Capital Territory
510
939
495
775
479
612
Australia (d)
29 284
49 226
28 766
42 608
28 274
37 444

(a) Higher assumptions of fertility, life expectancy, overseas and interstate migration flows.
(b) Medium assumptions of fertility, life expectancy, overseas and interstate migration flows.
(c) Lower assumptions of fertility, overseas and interstate migration flows, and a medium assumption of life expectancy.
(d) Includes Other Territories.
Selected population milestones, Australia, Series A, B and C

Population Milestone
Series A (a)
Series B (b)
Series C (c)

30 Million
2028/29
2030/31
2032/33
35 Million
2038/39
2043/44
2053/54
40 Million
2048/49
2058/59
. .
45 Million
2058/59
. .
. .

(a) Higher assumptions of fertility, life expectancy and overseas migration flows.
(b) Medium assumptions of fertility, life expectancy and overseas migration flows.
(c) Lower assumptions of fertility and overseas migration flows, and a medium assumption of life expectancy.


Further information is available in Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) to 2066 (cat. no. 3222.0) available for free download from the ABS website.


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QRC welcomes Co-ordinator General approval of MacMines Austasia project in Galilee Basin

THE Queensland Resources Council (QRC) has welcomed the Coordinator General’s decision to approve MacMines Austasia’s $6.7 billion China Stone coal mine in the Galilee Basin.

“Every new investment in the resources sector is good news for Queensland,” QRC chief executive Ian Macfarlane said.

“The resources industry adds $62.9 billion to the Queensland economy and supports 316,000 direct and indirect jobs.

“Our resources sector puts money in the bank for every Queenslander, from the Cape to the Gold Coast.

“It pays more than $4 billion in royalty taxes, which are used to build roads, schools and hospitals, and to pay the wages of hard-working teachers, nurses and police officers.

“The Queensland resources sector works hand-in-hand with regional communities and has a long history of co-existing alongside other important industries including agriculture and tourism.

“The economic value from the resources sector is created using just 0.1 per cent of Queensland’s land area, and our resources sector is committed to sustainable land use and rehabilitation.”

In the report on the MacMines project the Coordinator General said: "I conclude that there are significant local, regional and state benefits to be derived from the China Stone Coal project, and that environmental impacts can be acceptably managed, minimised or offset, through the implementation of the measures and proponent commitments outlined in the EIS."

Mr Macfarlane said new projects in the Galilee Basin would further strengthen the long-term outlook for the resources sector and provide direct benefits to nearby regions.

“That means more high-paying jobs for regional Queenslanders, especially in places like Mackay, Townsville and Rockhampton.

“There are up to six mines that could open in the Galilee Basin. That’s just the shot in the arm that regional towns need.”

www.qrc.org.au

ends

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Unwrapping the gift of online shopping this Christmas

THIS SEASON, the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) and Roy Morgan predict Australians will spend in excess of $51 billion over the pre-Christmas trading period from November 9 to December 25, 2018, with the ARA anticipating that online shopping will a popular preference for consumers this Christmas.

The ARA and Roy Morgan estimate Aussie consumers will spend over $7.3 billion in the ‘Other Retailing’ category this festive season, representing a 2.7 percent jump compared to the previous year.

Russell Zimmerman, executive director of the ARA, said the ARA’s collective research from our partners at Neto and Hitwise indicate a gravitational shift towards shoppers turning to online platforms to hunt for the perfect gifts.

“Christmas is fast-becoming the most opportune season for shoppers to purchase gifts online, with online platforms offering convenience and a range of delivery options in the 24-hour marketplace,” Mr Zimmerman said.

“Online shopping accounts for over $23 billion annually in Australia, and the ARA and Neto expect even more consumers to use online platforms to get in early and avoid the rush that occurs in the lead up to Christmas.”

While Boxing Day reigns supreme as the most favourable sales day over the holiday shopping season, newer sales days including Black Friday and Cyber Monday are on the incline, with recent data from Hitwise indicating a 20 percent year-on-year increase from the previous year. The ARA believes these sales days will encourage retailers to prepare for the upcoming festive season.

“This year, we will again see Black Friday and Cyber Monday kicking off the pre-Christmas sales, and the ARA predicts these sales days will encourage retailers to prepare for the upcoming pre-Christmas scramble that occurs during the busy trading period,” Mr Zimmerman said.

With Deloitte’s Retailers’ Christmas Survey 2018, highlighting that 79 percent of local retailers forecast online sales to increase by 10 percent or more over the Christmas period, the ARA believes there are strong indications that online sales growth will be a significant contributing factor to retailer success this Christmas.

Ryan Murtagh, Founder and CEO of Neto, said Neto’s latest State of E-Commerce Report cited substantial growth in online gifting this year, with the average basket size increasing to $130, a 5 percent increase from the previous year.

“Over the last year, online retailing has experienced a 30 percent increase in sales compared to 2017, with fashion boasting the highest growth in sales with a 57 percent increase year-on-year. Homewares and Electronics follow closely behind with 13 percent average monthly sales increase across each category,” Mr Murtagh said.

The report also highlighted alternative payment options have recorded a 122 percent year-on-year increase compared to 2017, with many merchants adopting buy-now, pay-later services including Afterpay and ZipPay.

Mr Zimmerman said retailers who adopted these services will possess a significant advantage during the Christmas trading period this year.

“With a diverse range of viable payment options on offer from Buy Now, Pay Later services on the rise, merchants who offer these services to their consumers will reap the rewards of pre-Christmas sales,” Mr Zimmerman said.

“As the ARA already anticipate online retail sales to continue to increase immensely during this season, it seems likely that transactions through buy-now, pay-later services will contribute to this increase throughout the Christmas season and into the New Year.”

ARA Roy Morgan Pre-Christmas Sales Predictions: November 9 – December 24, 2018


2018 Pre-Christmas Sales Growth by Category

State

2017 Pre-Christmas actual results ($mil)

2018 Forecast Pre-Christmas sales ($mil)

Predicted Growth

FOOD

20163

20908

3.7%

HH GOODS

8757

8931

2.0%

APPAREL

3906

4028

3.1%

DEPARTMENT STORES

2935

2943

0.3%

OTHER

7127

7321

2.7%

HOSPITALITY

7117

7348

3.2%

NATIONAL

50005

51479

2.9%

[ARA / ROY MORGAN]

 

2018 Pre-Christmas Sales Growth by State

State

2017 Pre-Christmas actual results ($mil)

2018 Forecast Pre-Christmas sales ($mil)

Predicted Growth

NSW

16132

16629

3.1%

VIC

12843

13512

5.2%

QLD

9907

10071

1.7%

SA

3320

3422

3.1%

WA

5395

5366

-0.5%

TAS

998

1038

4.0%

NT

495

501

1.2%

ACT

914

940

2.9%

NATIONAL

50005

51479

2.9%

[ARA / ROY MORGAN]

For more information on Christmas predictions and to keep up to date, visit https://www.retail.org.au/christmas-predictions/

Follow the links to view Neto’s 2018 State of E-Commerce Report and Hitwise’s Top Trends To Think About This Holiday Season  and the Deloitte Retailers’ Christmas Survey 2018.

www.retail.org.au

ends

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QRC welcomes Co-ordinator General approval of MacMines Austasia project in Galilee Basin

THE Queensland Resources Council (QRC) has welcomed the Coordinator General’s decision to approve MacMines Austasia’s $6.7 billion China Stone coal mine in the Galilee Basin.

“Every new investment in the resources sector is good news for Queensland,” QRC chief executive Ian Macfarlane said.

“The resources industry adds $62.9 billion to the Queensland economy and supports 316,000 direct and indirect jobs.

“Our resources sector puts money in the bank for every Queenslander, from the Cape to the Gold Coast.

“It pays more than $4 billion in royalty taxes, which are used to build roads, schools and hospitals, and to pay the wages of hard-working teachers, nurses and police officers.

“The Queensland resources sector works hand-in-hand with regional communities and has a long history of co-existing alongside other important industries including agriculture and tourism.

“The economic value from the resources sector is created using just 0.1 per cent of Queensland’s land area, and our resources sector is committed to sustainable land use and rehabilitation.”

In the report on the MacMines project the Coordinator General said: "I conclude that there are significant local, regional and state benefits to be derived from the China Stone Coal project, and that environmental impacts can be acceptably managed, minimised or offset, through the implementation of the measures and proponent commitments outlined in the EIS."

Mr Macfarlane said new projects in the Galilee Basin would further strengthen the long-term outlook for the resources sector and provide direct benefits to nearby regions.

“That means more high-paying jobs for regional Queenslanders, especially in places like Mackay, Townsville and Rockhampton.

“There are up to six mines that could open in the Galilee Basin. That’s just the shot in the arm that regional towns need.”

www.qrc.org.au

ends

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Retail super needs to follow the industry fund model - CFMEU

THE BANKING royal commission has clearly demonstrated that industry super funds have a solid governance model that Australia’s retail banks would be well served to emulate, CFMEU Queensland state secretary Michael Ravbar said.

As the Hayne Commission exposes yet more appalling management at the very top of the Commonwealth Bank, it beggars belief that the Federal Coalition Government has pushed to upend the board structures of Australian industry funds and remake them in a more ‘corporate’ fashion, he said.

“Yesterday we heard of millions of dollars in bonuses paid to executives that even the CBA’s current chair Catherine Livingstone admits were ‘inappropriate’ – and we learn that the previous chair was ordered by the board to repay 40 percent of salary but point blank refused, and this was not disclosed to shareholders,” Mr Ravbar said.

He said this followed nearly 10 months of "utterly damnable evidence about misconduct in the banking sector, where naked greed and the pursuit of profit has been exposed as the norm".

“The Commonwealth Bank, NAB, AMP, Suncorp and other were all found to have contravened superannuation and corporations law,” Mr Ravbar said.  “And as the inquiry draws to a close still we have revelations of the most appalling disregard for members and shareholders’ interests at the highest levels of these institutions.

“And what did the Turnbull and Morrison governments – which were dragged kicking and screaming to this inquiry in the first place - want?  They wanted our industry funds to be more like the ones run by the big banks, and they wanted to give the banks a bigger chop at the default super sector.

“The lesson from this inquiry is that Australians would be better served if the banks – which are hopelessly conflicted in trying to balance the competing interests of shareholders and policy holders – were kicked out of superannuation altogether, where their track record is one of naked corporate self-interest and institutionalised theft.

“At the very least the board structures of our big banks need to be remade so they are more reflective of customer interests, and the industry super fund model would be a good template to work from,” Mr Ravbar said.

ends

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