RSL QUEENSLAND is encouraging Australians to honour the service of Australia’s Defence forces, past and present, by standing at the end of their driveways or on their balconies as the sun rises this Anzac Day.

With Anzac Day services, events and parades cancelled across the nation due to the ongoing COVID19 crisis, RSL Queensland state president Tony Ferris said such a display of solidarity would send a powerful message of support to Australia’s Defence community.

“This is an idea that has gathered momentum in social media, and we agree it's a brilliant way to collectively honour the dedication, commitment and sacrifice of our service people – even though we cannot physically be together,” Mr Ferris said.

He said Australians could safely commemorate Anzac Day by standing at the end of their driveway or on a balcony at 6am and observing a minute’s silence.

“This Anzac Day, I’d like to see all Australians participate in a different kind of Dawn Service, an intimate reflection conducted on a mass scale that unites us all in the Anzac spirit.”

He said the qualities evoked by the ANZAC spirit – ingenuity, humour, endurance, courage and mateship – were more important than ever in times of uncertainty.

“Regardless of the form this year’s Anzac Day commemorations take, let’s show that Australians will always remember those who have served and sacrificed for this nation,” he said.

Australians can also show their support by donating to RSL Queensland’s Anzac Day Appeal at anzacappeal.com.au

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EXPERTS are forecasting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will take drastic measures to right the dropping Aussie economy – with an emergency rate cut likely this week, according to Finder.com.au.

The market yesterday tumbled to its lowest level since April 2016, as the coronavirus (COVID-19) continues to wreak havoc on local and international economies. 

With an out-of-cycle cut on the cards, Finder conducted an unscheduled Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey yesterday, polling 15 experts and economists about the movement of the cash rate and the ASX 200, among other things.

Around half of the economists who responded to the last-minute survey (53%, 8/15) expected the RBA to make an emergency cash rate cut this week.

Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said things are changing rapidly. 

“Only a few days before the last RBA cut two weeks ago, 85% of economists said they did not expect a cut and only half thought the ASX 200 would drop by 10% in value," Mr Cooke said.

“Within a week, we had a cut and a 20 percent drop. This signals the sheer severity and speed of the coronavirus impact,” Mr Cooke said. 

Three quarters of experts (10/15, 76%) said Monday morning they did not expect the RBA to announce the introduction of quantitative easing.

However, in a sign of how quickly things are changing, Westpac announced just before 3pm on Monday afternoon that they expect both to happen this week.

Noel Whittaker of Queensland University of Technology (QUT) said the RBA would cut this week.

"Everybody else is [cutting, the RBA] don't have much of an option," Mr Whittaker said.

Recession likely, but expected to be short-lived

Almost all experts (13/15, 87%) said a recession was now likely. This is a huge shift from the 89% who did not expect a 2020 recession when surveyed in December.

While most experts expected a recession, two-thirds (10/15, 67%) said it would be over by the end of the year.

Mr Cooke said fear of recession among the general public had been brewing for a while, although economists had until now, were more optimistic.

"We've seen fear of recession among the Australian public grow over recent months, while the vast majority of economists were saying it wouldn't happen," he said.

“COVID-19 pouncing unexpectedly on an already weakened Australian economy, has very much changed the game."

Experts were also asked how low the ASX could plunge before a recovery, with the average economist pointing to a bottom of 4,460.

“If markets plunge to the depths predicted here, it will be a 37 percent drop since the market peak of 20 Feb. This will be the most significant drop since the 53 percent plunge post-GFC,” Mr Cooke said.

Economists were divided as to whether the government’s stimulus package would be sufficient, with over half (8/15, 54%) saying it was not.

Finally, most experts expected house prices to be negatively affected, with 20 percent (3) expecting a significant drop and 60% (9) expecting a slight drop. 

Only two experts (13%) expected house prices to be unaffected.

Mr Cooke said this downturn in the market could present a window for cashed-up Aussies ready to buy.

“If you’re one of the first-time buyers who missed out on the 2019 price dip, 2020 could provide a second bite at the apple," Mr Cooke said.

“Keep a close eye on your local market, but be careful – nobody knows what may be around the corner or how long this coronavirus dampening could really last,” he said.

Here’s what our experts had to say:

Nicholas Frappell, ABC Bullion (cut this week): "I believe that they will cut as part of an internationally coordinated effort to combat the economic effects of coronavirus, with the added element of Australia's exposure to tourism and the Chinese economy."

John Hewson, ANU (hold this week): "Know it won't help much and want to avoid unconventional monetary policy."

Malcolm Wood, Baillieu (cut this week): "Co-ordinated global easing and liquidity support."

David Bassanese, BetaShares (cut this week): "Case to cut so strong no reason to wait."

Craig Emerson, Craig Emerson Economics (cut this week): "To follow other central banks."

John Rolfe, Elders Home Loans (hold this week): "I don't believe our economy would benefit from this. The issue will be productivity not funding. Also, there is no run on our banks and even if there was, our banks are well funded."

Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics (hold this week): "The triumph of hope over experience. In the circumstances, it is extraordinary how much prestige the RBA enjoys. They were one of the better banks in the world through the last crisis, but even then they were complacent in ways that were when you thought about it extraordinary. They stuck to their schedule and did not have an additional board meeting with the GFC still raging because it was January. They've continued to hold four board meetings a year on the day after the national accounts have been released. That's extraordinary to me. With emergency out-of-cycle cuts elsewhere, perhaps that will end along with other pre-viral complacencies of other systems we have in place in the health system. But the most fundamental problem has been the RBA's reluctance to cut rates even in the face of its own forecasts of unemployment persisting or even rising. This has gone on since late 2013. Now in the game the RBA is in, mistakes are easy because they require you to forecast the future. The RBA correctly forecast that unemployment would remain too high but sat wringing its hands for years and years, occasionally relenting with the minimal rate cut of 25 basis points. It was trying to 'lean against the wind' of asset prices. But it's at least as likely that they exacerbated the bubble because with rate cuts being too little too late, investors saw a one way bet against interest rates rising any time soon. With more aggressive action a few years ago, growth might have returned – particularly with exports from a lower exchange rate – and rates could well have been on their way up. I'm hoping it will soon be okay for people to admit to themselves that, at least in hindsight, the RBA has been getting things disastrously wrong for over half a decade."

Jeffrey Sheen, Macquarie University (hold this week): "They have already cut. They will wait and see."

Geoffrey Harold Kingston, Macquarie University Business School (hold this week): "The Bank will seek to balance supporting the economy with avoiding the appearance of panic."

Mark Crosby, Monash University (cut this week): "Businesses cannot function without a workforce while still paying rent and interest. The RBA and government need to do what it takes to get these costs closer to zero."

Dr Andrew Wilson, My Housing Market (cut this week): "The RBA need to keep the AUD competitive as global rates are cut - and to act expeditiously to bolster local confidence in clearly uncertain times. A 25 basis point cut however would be prudent allowing some scope for another cut perhaps on April 7. Although rate cuts are unlikely to impact confidence in the short-term, they will assist in medium-term recovery. Existing near-zero rates however will temper the impact of cuts with fiscal policy now clearly the main game. Fiscal policy stimulus should be directed to untapped demand in property sector - first home buyer grants as per Rudd in 2009 and Hawke 1983 - and initiatives to ease finance constraints on property development and investors."

Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer (cut this week): "Every little bit will help as we struggle to cope with the coronavirus and the looming recession."

Rich Harvey, Propertybuyer (hold this week): "The RBA will be forced to reduce interest rates to deal with impact of coronavirus on consumer confidence and keep our AUD competitive given that the US Fed Reserve dropped rates dramatically to zero. As a net exporter we have to have a competitive exchange rate to boost our export growth. The government is hoping the fiscal stimulus measures will maintain momentum for the economy to come out the other side stronger. Property markets will soften but unlikely that prices reduce much as there is plenty of pent up demand."

Noel Whittaker, QUT (cut this week): "Everybody else is [cutting, the RBA] don't have much option."

Clement Tisdell, UQ-School of Economics (hold this week): "They would be wise to follow the EU and not cut interest rates further."

Other participants: Besa Deda, St George Bank. Angela Jackson, Equity Economics. Marcel Thieliant, Capital Economics.

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THE LEADERSHIP duopoly of CFMEU Victoria-Tasmania brench secretary, John Setka, and Master Builders Victoria CEO,  Rebecca Casson, agree that during these challenging times, in the spirit of industry co-operation, it is critical that all stakeholders work together to ensure the protection of both workers and the building and construction industry.

Master Builders Victoria (MBV) and CFMEU Vic-Tas are committed to working together to ensure there is a pipeline of work in place for the building and construction industry, to guarantee jobs are kept, as far as is reasonably practicable and businesses remain solvent.

Additionally, considerable measures must be made by the State Government to consider the protection of the building and construction industry, which contributes to 45 percent of tax revenue for the state.

"It is essential that decisions made in relation to building and construction sites are done so in the context of a rigorous understanding of the environment in which people work,  and that the controls that are currently in place are being implemented," a joint statement read. 

"The building and construction environment is significantly different from many others, with the ability to socially distance on sites and isolate groups."

Mr Setka and Ms Casson also agreed that special consideration be given to the building and construction industry in regard to blanket closures related to COVID-19. 

Both parties are committed to not only protecting community health, but also limiting the broader community impact if the industry is brought to a standstill. However, if there is a requirement for a site closure, or closures, due to community health reasons, the MBV and CFMEU should be jointly consulted to enable forward planning. 

Mr Setka and Ms Casson will continue to work with all relevant leadership and government bodies – including following the advice of the Victorian Chief Health Officer - to ensure the safety and wellbeing of their collective memberships and the community.

The CFMEU and MBV joined a united delegation including the AMWU, CCF, ETU, Master Plumbers, NECA, PPTEU this afternoon to put this case forward to the Premier’s office. A detailed copy of the recommendations is available.

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THE City of Melbourne is temporarily closing its public libraries and cultural and recreation centres from today to try to help slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus within our workforce and the community.

Six libraries and four recreation centres will close from 2pm today until Tuesday 31 March 2020, with the possibility of this closure being extended.

Visitor services offered by the City of Melbourne’s more than 400 ‘red coat’ ambassadors will also be suspended until further notice.

No permits will be issued for events of 500 people or more for the foreseeable future.

Lord Mayor Sally Capp said the City of Melbourne would work through other solutions to continue to provide services for our community.

“While none of our staff members have been diagnosed with COVID-19 we need to protect the safety of our staff and slow the spread of the virus within the community,” Lord Mayor Capp said.

“Our libraries, recreation and cultural centres are important community meeting places so this is not a decision we take lightly.

“It is important that we rise to this challenge and work together to find the best solutions for our community. Melbourne must continue to be a caring city during this period and look out for each other wherever possible.”

The libraries to close include City Library in Flinders Lane, Kathleen Syme in Carlton, Library at The Dock in Docklands, East Melbourne, North Melbourne and Southbank Library at Boyd.

Recreation centres to close include Melbourne City Baths, Kensington Recreation Centre, Carlton Baths and North Melbourne Recreation Centre.

Arts and cultural venues to temporarily close include Meat Market, Signal, ArtPlay and Arts House. This excludes artists’ studios.

All Council’s child care facilities will continue to operate as usual at this time.

Planning, building, waste and recycling, animal management, and parking and traffic services will also continue to operate as usual.

The Lord Mayor said the City of Melbourne was working closely with service providers to ensure that the most vulnerable in our community can still access services – particularly the elderly and rough sleepers.

“This is a time when we need to look out for all members of our community,” Lord Mayor Capp said.

Contingency plans for all council meetings to be explored, including the use of video conferencing facilities and teleconferencing.

“Our organisation has done a significant amount of planning to ensure crucial services to the community are not severely impacted by this pandemic,” the Lord Mayor said.

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