China coal forecast wrong - QRC

THE peak representative body for Queensland’s minerals and energy exporters has rejected claims that China would cut its reliance on coal-fired power in coming decades.

Queensland Resources Council Chief Executive Michael Roche said it was disappointing that economist Professor Ross Garnaut – the author of climate reviews for the Rudd and Gillard governments – was continuing to put ideology ahead of hard data.

"Professor Garnaut is correct in observing that renewable energy is on the rise, but the undisputed fact is that coal produces more than 40 percent of the world's electricity and is forecast to overtake oil as the globe’s largest source of primary energy," Mr Roche said.

"China is the world’s largest consumer of energy with coal meeting almost 70 percent of its requirements, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

"China uses as much coal as the rest of the world combined and the International Energy Agency says it will continue to drive coal demand for the rest of this decade, followed in the 2020s by India and ASEAN countries.

"ASEAN country electricity generation is forecast to grow by more than the current power output of India, and coal is the fuel of choice, accounting for 58 percent of the growth."

Mr Roche cited news reports this week that Qinhuangdao – China’s largest coal port – is set for record deliveries over the next three years as urbanisation boosts demand.

Bloomberg reported that imports of coal through Qinhuangdao are expected to rise by 20-30 million tonnes by 2017, after a peak of 279 million tons in 2011.

"The port, the delivery point for about 40 percent of China’s seaborne coal, is a barometer of the nation’s economy, former Premier Wen Jiabao said in 2008. Gross domestic product rose 7.5 percent in the April-June period from a year earlier, the first acceleration in three quarters," the Bloomberg report says.

"The anti-coal movement in Australia is trying to shut down our second largest export industry and hundreds of thousands of jobs based on two falsehoods," Mr Roche said.

"The first is that global demand for coal is faltering when organisations including the International Energy Agency and their 29-member country forecasters say otherwise.

"The second is that Australia should stop exporting coal when it would be simply purchased from other sources with no net benefit to the environment.

"Coal is here to stay, and to reduce its carbon footprint, low-emission generation technology is the key.

"That’s just not the coal industry talking – it’s the Climate Institute (Australia) and other leading ENGOs," Mr Roche said.

www.qrc.org.au

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