Rate cut risks confidence dip

THERE is little point in the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting interest rates on Tuesday and a move could drive business and consumer confidence even lower. 

QUT financial economist Dr David Willis said the RBA would likely resist a second cut in consecutive months but tipped a rate cut further in the year.

In its February meeting, the RBA cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 per cent after they had been on hold for 18 months.

"The quarter of a per cent cut could be described as a surprise and wishful thinking from the RBA about the effect such a cut would have on any investment decisions and consumer consumption," Dr Willis said.

"There is little point in the RBA using what is left in its monetary arsenal at this time."

Dr Willis said with interest rates at record lows, cutting them further risked damaging the housing part of the economy.

"On one side, the side the RBA hope for, companies see low interest rates as an opportunity to invest in new infrastructure and consumers cheer lower mortgage payments and, buoyed also by cheaper petrol, start spending and stoking the economy," he said

"However the other side, which seems to be playing out, is that the RBA is seen to be very worried about the wider economy and low wage growth, high unemployment and low consumer and business confidence.

"So rather than boosting confidence, another rate cut could cause business to be more pessimistic, stop spending and amass cash in the event of a recession. Meanwhile consumers are worried about unemployment so use any savings to pay down debt.

"Cutting rates further now will only have a very marginal effect in the medium term and may drive confidence even lower."

Dr Willis said the "only bright spot" for the RBA was the property market and rate cuts could also put this in jeopardy.

"The RBA is starting to place a lot of risk into the housing market and if this develops into a housing bubble, then, when interest rates rise again, it could mean a bust taking the entire economy with it.

"Therefore I think the RBA will do the responsible thing for this cycle and keep rates on hold, as a cut gives no appreciable gain for the economy as a whole."

But Dr Willis said the RBA would probably be forced to cut rates again later in the year.

"Government is presently looking to cut the budget, not spend, and the economy is already in adjustment from the end of the mining boom," he said.

"So the RBA will have little choice but to use everything at its disposal to try to stimulate the economy later in the year, even though it knows there will be only marginal or no effect on the real economy and it risks inflating a housing bubble."

www.qut.edu.au

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